The November supply and demand report has a neutral impact on the soybean market. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s November supply and demand report raised yield and production forecasts only marginally, and kept export forecasts unchanged, avoiding a bearish report for soybeans.
The USDA raised its 2022/23 average U.S. soybean yield to 50.2 bushels per acre, up from last month’s forecast of 49.8 bushels per acre. Soybean production is forecast at 4.346 billion bushes, up from 4.313 billion bushes forecast in October and down 2.67% from the 2021/22 production of 4.465 billion bushes.
For comparison, prior to the report, analysts on average expected U.S. soybean production to be 4.315 billion bushels, with a yield of 49.8 bushels per acre.
The 2022/23 U.S. soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 2.245 billion bushes, the second consecutive increase; exports remain unchanged at 2.045 billion bushes, 5.24% lower than the previous year’s 2.158 billion bushes .
The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month lowered the 2022/23 soybean production currently being planted in Argentina to 49.5 million tons, down from a forecast of 51 million tons last month; Brazil’s soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 152 million tons. China’s soybean import forecast for 2022/23 remains unchanged at 98 million tonnes.
However, the epidemic in China has caused concern about the prospect of China’s demand for soybeans in the United States, and the high soybean yield in Brazil is in sight, which has affected the soybean market sentiment.
Brazil’s National Supply Corporation (CONAB) on Wednesday forecast Brazil’s soybean production in 2022/23 at a record 153.54 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from its October forecast and 22.3 percent higher than in 2021/22, as plantings increased more than earlier expected.