USDA Supply and Demand Report: 2022/23 U.S. soybean production cut more than expected

——The U.S. soybean production for the new season is expected to be 4.505 billion bushes, down 135 million bushels from the previous month

Washington, July 12 News: The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its July supply and demand report on Tuesday, lowering U.S. soybean production by more than 10 million bushels than the industry average expected, but ending stocks of new soybeans were higher than market expectations. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s data on global soybean inventories came in above analysts’ expectations, and Argentina’s soybean production was raised more than expected.

U.S. soybean output lowered by 135 million bushels

The USDA this month adjusted the 2022/23 U.S. soybean acreage to 88.3 million acres to align with the June acreage report. The national average soybean yield was 51.5 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month and in line with market expectations.

USDA expects the September U.S. new soybean crop to be harvested at 4.505 billion bushels, down 135 million bushes from the June forecast of 4.64 billion bushes, while analysts on average expected 4.515 billion bushels and a forecast range of 4.498 to 4.64 billion bushes . According to the latest revised production, it is 1.6% higher than the 2021/22 production of 4.435 billion bushels.

U.S. soybean ending stocks cut by 50 million bushels

USDA forecasts U.S. new soybean ending stocks at the end of August 2023 at 230 million bushes, down 50 million bushes from the June forecast of 280 million bushes, reflecting a 125 million bushel reduction in supplies and a 1,000 bushel reduction in crush. In 10,000 bushels, exports are lowered by 65 million bushes. By contrast, analysts on average had expected new soybean ending stocks to be lowered by 66 million bushels prior to the report. Forecasts range from 141 million to 280 million bushels.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture this month lowered the average U.S. soybean farm price for 2022/23 by 30 cents to $14.4 a bushel.

U.S. aging soybean ending stocks rise in line with expectations

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 to be 215 million bushes, up 10 million bushels from the June forecast of 205 million bushes, in line with market expectations. This reflects a 10 million bushels lower estimate for soybean crush.

The USDA kept the current year’s average soybean farm price unchanged at $13.35 per bush.

The decline in global new soybean ending stocks is worse than market expectations

The USDA this month projected global soybean ending stocks for 2022/23 at 99.61 million tons, down from a forecast of 100.5 million tons in June, as lower stocks in the United States, Brazil and China were partially offset by higher stocks in Argentina.

Analysts expect global stocks of new beans to be 99.2 million tons, with a forecast range of 96.5 million tons to 101 million tons.

The USDA also raised global ending stocks of aged soybeans to 88.73 million tons, up from the 86.2 million tons forecast in June, but also higher than analysts’ average forecast of 86.4 million tons, with a forecast range of 85.7 million tons to 87 million tons. tons.

Aged soybean stocks are raised due to lower crush and imports in China and higher soybean production, imports, crush, and ending stocks in Argentina.

Argentina soybean output raised, Brazil output unchanged

The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its 2021/22 soybean production forecast for Argentina to 44 million tons this month, up from 43.4 million in June and ahead of industry expectations of 43.3 million.

Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 is expected to be 126 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and slightly higher than the industry forecast of 125.9 million tons.