USDA report raises U.S. soybean production forecast, lowers South American soybean production forecast

WASHINGTON, Jan. 12: The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a report on Wednesday (Jan. 12) that projected U.S. soybean production in 2021/22 to reach a record level, higher than earlier forecasts.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. That means the soybean market will be highly sensitive to South American weather going forward, analysts said.

The final U.S. Department of Agriculture production report puts the 2021/22 U.S. soybean production at 4.435 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre, up from the December forecast of 4.425 billion bushels and an average yield of 51.2 bushels per acre, respectively. Po.

Ahead of the report, analysts on average expected the report to show U.S. soybean production at 4.443 billion bushels and yields of 51.3 bushels per acre.

U.S. soybean ending stocks raised

The USDA raised its end-August 2022 U.S. soybean ending stocks to 350 million bushes, up from a forecast of 340 million bushes in December and up from 257 million bushes in the previous year.

Analysts expected the USDA to raise soybean ending stocks to 348 million bushels ahead of the report.

World soybean ending stocks are lowered mainly due to lower South American production

This month the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected 2021/22 (October-September) global soybean ending stocks at 95.2 million tons, down from the December forecast of 102 million tons and below analysts’ expectations of 99.93 million tons.

This month’s reduction in global soybean inventories was mainly due to a reduction in global production by 9.22 million tons, from 381.78 million tons expected in the previous month to 372.56 million tons, of which Brazil and Argentina soybean production combined was lowered by 8 million tons.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 to 139 million tons, down 5 million tons from its December forecast of 144 million tons. Before the report, analysts expected the U.S. Department of Agriculture to lower Brazil’s soybean output to 141.6 million tons.

In contrast, Brazil’s National Commodities Supply Corporation (CONAB) on Tuesday lowered its forecast for Brazil’s soybean production by 2.3 million tons, from 142.8 million tons forecast a month ago to 140.5 million tons. The lowered output still set a new record. A record, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%.

The USDA on Wednesday also lowered its forecast for Argentina’s soybean production to 46.5 million tons, down from an earlier forecast of 49.5 million tons. In contrast, analysts on average had expected the USDA to lower Argentina’s soybean production to 48.1 million tons prior to the report.