USDA report ahead: 2022/23 U.S. soybean production may be lowered by 125 million bushels
WASHINGTON, July 11: The USDA will release its July supply and demand report at 12:00 a.m. ET (12:00 a.m. Wednesday in Beijing). Analysts expect the report may lower U.S. soybean production in 2022/23 to reflect the impact of lower U.S. soybean plantings, while global soybean ending stocks for 2022/23 may also be lowered.
U.S. soybean production forecast may be cut by 125 million bushels
Analysts, on average, expect U.S. soybean production in 2022/23 to be 4.515 billion bushels, down 125 million bushels, or 2.7%, from the June forecast of 4.64 billion bushels, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of institutional analysts. The June 30 acreage report lowered the forecast for soybean acreage to 88.325 million acres, 2.625 million acres, or 2.9%, below March planting intentions.
Analysts expect this month’s report to show U.S. soybean yields held at 51.5 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month’s forecast and slightly higher than last year’s 51.4 bushels per acre.
If analysts’ production forecast materializes, it would be a 1.8% increase from the previous year’s production of 4.435 billion bushels. Analysts forecast a range of 4.498 billion to 4.64 billion bushels.
U.S. new soybean ending stocks may drop sharply
Analysts on average expect U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2022/23 to be 214 million bushels, down 66 million bushels, or 23.6%, from the June forecast of 280 million bushels, which ranged from 141 million to 280 million bushels.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are projected at 215 million bushes, up 10 million bushes from the June forecast of 205 million bushes, likely reflecting a slower-than-expected pace of exports. Forecasts range from 190 million to 250 million bushels.
Global new soybean ending stocks may be lowered by more than 1%
Analysts expect global soybean ending stocks in 2022/23 to be 99.2 million tons, down 1.3 million tons from the June forecast of 100.5 million tons, but still 14.8% higher than the previous year, with a forecast range of 96.5 million tons to 101 million tons .
Global soybean ending stocks in 2021/22 are expected to be 86.4 million tons, slightly higher than the 86.2 million tons forecast in June, and the forecast range is 85.7 million tons to 87 million tons.
South American soybean production may be slightly lower
Analysts also expect Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 to be 125.9 million tonnes, down slightly from a June forecast of 126 million tonnes. Analysts’ forecasts ranged from 125 million to 127 million tonnes.
Analysts expect Argentina’s soybean production in 2021/22 to be 43.3 million tons, slightly down from the 43.4 million expected in June, which ranged from 43 to 44 million.