Safras cuts Brazil soybean production forecast for 2021/22 by 12.37 million tons
Foreign media, January 16 news: Consulting firm SAFRAS & Mercado released a report on Friday, lowering Brazil’s soybean production by 12.37 million tons due to dry weather in southern Brazil and Mato Grosso do Sul.
The company’s latest forecast for Brazil’s soybean production in 2021/22 is 132.33 million tonnes, down from 144.7 million tonnes forecast in November and 4.2% lower than the previous year’s output of 138.1 million tonnes.
Brazil’s soybean plantings in 2021/22 stood at 40.8 million hectares, up from the 40.5 million hectares forecast in November and 4.1 percent higher than the previous year’s 39.19 million hectares, the report said.
Average soybean yields are lowered to 3,260 kg/ha, down from an earlier forecast of 3,542 kg/ha, due to lower soybean yields in Brazil’s southern states, particularly Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.
Throughout December and at the beginning of the month, the southern states of Brazil suffered severe crop problems due to lack of rain, and soybean production suffered severe losses. Among them, the problem is the most serious in Parana, where the drought has caused a loss of at least 30% of soybean yields in the state. Given that the soybean harvest in Parana has already started, we can already assume that most of the damage is irreversible, said Luis Fernand Roque, an analyst at Safras.
In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, drought has also hit most crops, causing yield damage in some areas. Still, with the state’s late soybean production cycle, it is still possible to minimize losses if there is rain in the next six to eight weeks. However, the loss of some soybean crops has been irreversible, especially soybeans sown later, due to persistently low soil moisture, soybean germination and early development problems.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, lack of rainfall also affected some crops, but no major losses can be said at this time.
In other states of central-western, southeastern, northern and northeastern Brazil, most soybean crops have maintained their yield potential despite some problems caused by excessive rainfall. However, it will not be clear until harvest whether there are yield and/or quality issues. The record pace of soybean planting this year was off to a good start, but the 2021/22 soybean crop will not hit a record high due to dry weather brought on by La Niña, Loke said.