Safras cuts Brazil soybean export forecast, keeps crush unchanged

-India’s growing demand for Brazilian soybean oil supports soybean crushing

Foreign media February 27: Consulting firm Safras & Mercado on Friday forecast Brazil’s soybean exports in 2022 at 80.5 million tons, down 5 million tons from its January forecast and from a record 86.1 million tons in 2021. A decrease of 5.6 million tons or 6.5 percent.

Exports are lowered because of crop failures due to dry weather. Hot and dry weather in southern Brazil this year has pushed soybean production by as much as 15 million tonnes below forecasts earlier in the year.

Safras kept its Brazil soybean crush forecast unchanged at 47.5 million tonnes, up 2% from 2021.

Improved export demand for Brazilian soybean oil helped support higher soybean crush in Brazil.

Brazil’s soybean oil exports to top vegetable oil buyer India hit a record high.

Soybean meal and soybean oil exports expected to grow year-on-year in 2022

In 2022, Brazil’s soybean meal production is expected to reach 36.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%; exports are expected to reach 18.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%; domestic consumption is expected to reach 18.3 million tons, an increase of 2%.

In 2022, soybean oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 9.65 million tons; exports are expected to increase by 3% to 1.7 million tons. Domestic soybean oil consumption is expected to be 8 million tons, down 2% year-on-year, as the biodiesel blending rate is lowered, resulting in a decrease in soybean oil usage in the biodiesel industry to 4.1 million tons, down 2% year-on-year.

Safras also expects Brazil to import 1 million tonnes of soybeans in 2022, up 16 percent from the previous year.