NOAA expects La Niña weather to last through January

Foreign media, October 16 news: The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) weather report released on October 13 shows that the La Niña phenomenon will shift to a neutral weather pattern between February and April 2023.

But NOAA cautions that predicting the exact timing of the transition is a challenge, as uncertainty remains about how long La Niña might last. There is a 75% chance of La Niña in the northern hemisphere winter (summer in the southern hemisphere) in 2022/23 and a 54% chance of ENSO neutrality in February 2023.

This year will be the third year in a row that a La Niña weather event is likely to affect Brazil’s grain harvest. Soybean production in three states in Brazil’s southern region, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, was adversely affected last year.

Meteorologists say this year’s La Niña is weak to moderate, with the greatest impact on crops in southern Brazil. There has been a lot of rain in southern Brazil in recent weeks, but it is now expected to decrease from October 20, especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

NOAA reports that there will still be rain in southern Brazil for the next seven days. Starting on the 21st, weather models show a decrease in rainfall, with most of the state of Rio Grande do Sul without any rain forecast until October 29. Santa Catarina and Parana can still see some rain, albeit not much.

Brazil’s National Meteorological Institute (INMET) forecasts less rainfall in the three southern states during October, November and December. Cumulative rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul should be between 100mm and 200mm below average, with a possible 300mm gap in the western part of the state. In Santa Catarina, IMNET is forecasting rainfall between 50mm and 100mm below the historical average. Rainfall in Parana may be between 10mm and 50mm below the historical average, with some areas reaching 100mm. In central and northern Brazil, INMET forecasts mostly at or above average rainfall.