Gro Intelligence: Global soybean stock-to-use ratio will pick up in 2022/23

-Brazilian soybean production set to hit record high, helping to offset sharp decline in Argentinian soybean production

Foreign media news on December 29: The forecast released by the analysis agency Gro Intelligence on Thursday shows that this year’s Brazilian soybean crop has started well, and the output will have a double-digit increase compared with last year, reaching a record high.

But in neighboring Argentina, drought will reduce soybean production to its lowest level in five years.

Gro-Intelligence makes near real-time forecasts of South American soybean production based on machine learning forecasting models, with the Brazilian soybean marketing year beginning in February 2023 and the Argentine soybean marketing year beginning in April, when the soybean crops in both countries have matured.

Drought risk in Brazil has eased as the soybean growing season has advanced. This year’s soil moisture tends to be higher than that of the previous year, and the cumulative rainfall hovers around the highest value in the past 20 years, providing assistance for the high soybean yield.

The increase in soybean acreage in Brazil has also boosted yield potential. Soybean acreage in Brazil has increased by more than 50% over the past decade.

In Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and soybean meal, it is currently facing the worst drought conditions in 20 years, which has delayed soybean planting and reduced production potential. The Argentine soybean vegetation health index hit the lowest value so far this century.

Argentine soybean-growing areas received some beneficial rainfall last weekend, and more rainfall is expected in late January, which will help boost Argentina’s soybean production expectations, but models show that Argentina’s production will still be the lowest since 2018.

Overall, Brazil’s record soybean production was more than enough to offset lower production in Argentina as well as lower production in the U.S. the previous year. Global soybean ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected to increase.