CONAB cuts 2021/22 soybean production in Brazil by 15 million tons

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Foreign media, February 10 news: Brazil’s agricultural statistics agency, the National Commodity Supply Corporation (CONAB), released its fifth crop harvest survey report on Thursday, predicting that Brazil’s total grain and oilseed production in 2021/22 will be 268.2 million tons, higher than the previous Annual increase of 12.79 million tons or 5%.

This year’s harvest has been affected by severe drought, especially in the southern states and the south-central part of Mato Grosso, which has led to marked losses in soybean and (first season) corn production, said CONAB President Gulheim Libero. Rainfall in January fell short of historical averages.

CONAB this month estimated Brazil’s soybean production at just 125.47 million tonnes, down from its January forecast of 140.5 million tonnes and about 9 percent below the previous year’s record crop. For comparison, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday forecast Brazil’s soybean production at 134 million tons, down from its January forecast of 139 million tons.

Brazil’s soybean harvest is currently 16.8 percent complete. Soybean crops were planted in an ideal window in most parts of Brazil, giving the market good expectations for production prospects, said Sargio Zain, director of agricultural policy and information at CONAB. But from November, the situation changed due to bad weather. The La Niña phenomenon has strongly affected rainfall in Brazil. The entire southern Brazil and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul have severely limited rainfall in November and December, accompanied by high temperatures, resulting in a sharp drop in local soybean yields.

CONAB expects Brazil to export 80.1 million tons of soybeans in 2021/22, down 10.3 from its January forecast? %, also lower than the export volume of 86 million tons in the previous year.

Corn production is expected to increase by 29% year-on-year

Although dry weather in southern Brazil has led to a severe decline in soybean production and damaged first-season corn production, CONAB remains optimistic about the outlook for Brazil’s total corn production, which is expected to reach 112.34 million tons, a 29% increase from the 2020/21 season. First-season corn production is forecast at 24 million tons, very close to last year’s production.

Second-season corn production is forecast at 86 million tons, unchanged from January’s forecast and 47 percent above last year’s frost and drought-reduced crop, due to attractive corn prices and soybean planting within an ideal window. Second crop corn is sown after soybean harvest. As of February 7, Brazil’s second-season corn planting was 22.4% complete, mainly in Mato Grosso, and the state’s second-season corn planting was 42.6% complete.

However, CONAB expects Brazil to import 1.7 million tonnes of corn in 2021/22, up from the 1.3 million tonnes expected in January, due to a reduced first-season corn crop.

Brazil’s corn exports in 2021/22 will reach 35 million tons, up from 20.8 million the previous year.

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