Brazil soybean output to rise 20% year-on-year despite La Niña risk, survey shows

Foreign media, October 9 news: The arrival of September rains gives Brazil a good start to the 2022/2023 soybean planting, and despite the risk of drought related to the La Niña phenomenon in southern Brazil, analysts still expect soybean production this year to exceed more than 150 million tons.

Brazil’s soybean production will reach a record 150.62 million tonnes, according to the average forecast by analysts at 12 institutions, slightly above the 150.36 million tonnes forecast by the National Commodities Supply Corporation of Brazil (CONAB) and higher than the USDA’s September forecast. 149 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it would be 25.07 million tonnes or 19.9% ​​higher than the previous year’s 125.55 million tonnes, when a severe drought in southern Brazil reduced soybean production.

Analysts’ forecasts range from 147.09 million tonnes (Hedging Points) to 154 million tonnes (Céleres). Of the 12 agencies, including CONAB and the USDA, only four expected production of less than 150 million tons.

Soybean production growth is driven by an expected record acreage. Analysts, on average, expect a record 42.83 million hectares (105.8 million acres), up 3.33 percent from the previous year’s 41.45 million hectares.

Brazilian farmers are now planting soybeans. Planting is off to a very good start, progressing quickly, and there is no shortage of moisture, with plenty of rain in the Midwest and Southeast, said Luiz Locke, an analyst at consultancy Safras & Mercado. Some parts of southern Brazil have had too much rain, but Locke believes “more is better than less”. However, despite an encouraging start, this year will see La Niña for the third year in a row, potentially affecting crops later in the year.